Today in one sentence: More than 100 million Americans voted early; Biden is favored to win the election; Trump has about a 10% chance of winning a second term; Democrats have a 3-in-4 chance at taking control of the Senate; the House will most likely remain under Democratic control; Trump needs a bigger-than-normal polling error in his favor; Biden will likely win even if polls were off by as much as they were in 2016; in most states, the unprecedented number of mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic means results will be heavily skewed at various points of the night; in some states the count might take days; and there’s a decent chance that it will take days or weeks before we have an actual the winner of the presidential election. In other words: Hold on to your butts.

1/ More than 100 million Americans voted early with more than 27 million mail-in ballots still outstanding – about 73% of the 137.5 million total ballots cast in the 2016 election, and more than double the 47 million early votes. The U.S. is on track to set a record turnout and surpass 150 million voters overall, which would mark the highest turnout of eligible voters by percentage in a presidential election since 1908. Several states have already recorded more votes than they did during the 2016 election – Texas, Washington, Montana, and Hawaii – and several battleground states – Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina – are nearing their 2016 totals. (New York Times / USA Today / Bloomberg)

2/ A federal judge ordered the U.S. Postal Service to sweep processing facilities in multiple battleground states for any remaining mail-in ballots and to rush delivery. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan gave USPS inspectors until 3 p.m. EST “to ensure that no ballots have been held up and that any identified ballots are immediately sent out for delivery.” (Axios / Reuters / Los Angeles Times)

3/ Trump clarified that he will declare victory on election night “when there is victory, if there is victory” saying “there’s no reason to play games.” The comment comes after Trump had told confidants he would declare victory prematurely if it looked like he was ahead. Biden, meanwhile, said he plans to address the nation as its new leader if news organizations declare him the mathematical president-elect – even if Trump continues to fight in court. (NPR / Axios)

  • Trump readies lawyers for election battle. “The legal battle could center on Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state where Trump has promised to mount challenges after the U.S. Supreme Court last month left in place an extension that would allow the state to count ballots received as many as three days after the Nov. 3 election.” (Bloomberg)

  • Here are the voting lawsuits that could lead to post-election fights over ballots. “At least a dozen major cases related to voting rules are still pending in key states, including Texas, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Minnesota and Nevada.” (Washington Post)

4/ The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told news anchors that the U.S. military would have no role in a peaceful transfer of power. (Axios)

5/ The FBI is investigating robocalls and texts urging people to stay home on Election Day. Voters have received an estimated 10 million automated, spam calls in recent days telling them to “stay safe and stay home.” (Washington Post / Reuters)

6/ Trump’s top campaign strategist has been paid tens of thousands of dollars a month through a third-party campaign vendor founded by Steve Bannon, which is currently part of a federal fraud and money laundering investigation. Jason Miller appears to have been paid as recently as July by Citizens of the American Republic, and appears to have also taken monthly payments from a firm co-founded by two Trump officials — one of them being Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien. Campaign finance experts say the arrangement is illegal. (Salon)

7/ Deutsche Bank is looking for ways to end its relationship with Trump after the election. Trump owes the bank about $340 million across three loans which will start coming due in two years. (Reuters)

8/ Dr. Deborah Birx warned top Trump administration officials in a private memo that the coronavirus pandemic is entering “the most concerning and most deadly phase” that requires “much more aggressive action.” In the memo, Dr. Birx suggested that Trump and his advisers were spending too much time focusing on preventing lockdowns and not enough time on controlling the virus, saying “This is not about lockdowns — it hasn’t been about lockdowns since March or April. It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented.” Meanwhile, former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said the U.S. will likely see COVID-19 deaths “well above 1,000” per day for a “sustained period of time.” (Washington Post / New York Times / CNBC)