Today in One Sentence. About 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots in this year’s midterm elections; Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed days before the midterms in a race that could decide control of the Senate; House Democrats called for Rep. Haley Stevens to be expelled from their caucus; a federal judge dismissed the Trump administration’s effort to delay certification of Alaska’s Senate election if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan lost to Democrat Mary Peltola; the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s last-minute attempt to set aside thousands of California mail-in ballots; Trump spent about half of his final speech before the midterms promoting his Washington renovation projects at the newly reopened Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool; Trump said he would become “Mr. Veto” if Democrats win control of Congress and would consider preemptive pardons for Elon Musk and his administration aides if Democrats start investigating them.

1/ About 50 million Americans have already cast their ballots in this year’s midterm elections, with early voting surpassing 2022 levels in every major Senate battleground and millions more votes expected Tuesday. The final New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in six of seven competitive Senate races, including Texas, Alaska, and Maine, and they’re effectively tied in Iowa. Most races, however, remain within the margin of error. To win a majority, Democrats need to defend every seat they currently hold and flip at least four Republican-held seats. 75% of Democrats say they’re certain to vote or had already voted, compared with 67% of Republicans. About a quarter of Republicans said they “probably will vote” or that the “chances are 50-50.” (New York Times / Washington Post / The Hill / Wall Street Journal)

  • The 2026 midterm election is tomorrow.

  • 🏛️ House forecasts.

  • Democrats win 94 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Democrats win 99 times out of 100. (FiftyPlusOne)
    Democrats win 96 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Democrats win 92 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Democrats win 84 times out of 100. (Decision Desk HQ)
    Democrats win 94 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)
    Democrats +24: 239 seats at least Leans Democratic. 196 seats at least Leans Republican. (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

  • 🏛️ Senate forecasts.

  • Democrats win 53 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Democrats win 79 times out of 100. (FiftyPlusOne)
    Democrats win 81.5 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Democrats win 77 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Democrats win 65 times out of 100. (Decision Desk HQ)
    Democrats win 76 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)
    Democrats +6: 53 seats at least Leans Democratic. 47 seats at least Leans Republican. (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

  • poll/ 32% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 64% disapprove. (Reuters)

  • poll/ 52% of voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 45% prefer Republicans. (NBC News)

  • Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not a future result.

  • How to manage stress and maintain perspective on election night in one sentence: Surround yourself with supportive people; set realistic expectations for results; mentally prepare for any outcome; accept uncertainty and lack of control; know the possibility of a significant polling error; limit social media and doomscrolling; focus on the bigger picture; and have a plan for post-election activities that bring you joy.

2/ Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed days before the midterms in a race that could decide control of the Senate. Stevens had promised to support El-Sayed, who defeated her in the Democratic primary, as recently as Saturday night. But on Sunday, however, she attended a Detroit church service with Rogers instead of a planned unity event with El-Sayed, blaming her decision on being told to stay away. “I don’t belong in Abdul’s campaign,” she said after reportedly being asked to not attend the unity event because the dispute had become “way too distracting.” The feud dates to the primary, when El-Sayed criticized pro-Israel groups for spending millions to support Stevens. She accused him and his allies of antisemitic rhetoric, and later demanded that El-Sayed denounce an outside group’s ad blaming U.S. aid to Israel for high grocery prices, which she called antisemitic. El-Sayed, however, had already rejected the ad. “At the end of the day I actually don’t think about Haley Stevens,” El-Sayed said, adding later: “None of this matters.” (New York Times / Washington Post / New York Times / Washington Post / NBC News / Associated Press / Politico / NPR / ABC News / Politico / CNBC / Wall Street Journal)

3/ House Democrats called for Rep. Haley Stevens to be expelled from their caucus after endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. At least eight House Democrats privately supported removing or punishing Stevens. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who had backed Stevens in the Democratic primary, called her endorsement a “despicable betrayal.” Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel declared that Stevens would be ineligible for future membership in the state party. And, several of Stevens’ staffers resigned, including her longtime chief of staff, who urged voters to support El-Sayed. Rep. Jamie Raskin, meanwhile, said he was “dumbfounded” after Stevens assured him the night before that she would support Democrats. El-Sayed’s campaign reported raising $1.2 million in roughly four hours after her announcement. (Washington Post / New York Times / The Hill / Semafor / Axios / Axios / The Hill / Politico)

4/ A federal judge dismissed the Trump administration’s effort to delay certification of Alaska’s Senate election if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan lost to Democrat Mary Peltola. The Justice Department wanted the state to set aside the ballots cast for another candidate named Dan Sullivan and investigate whether voters had intended to support the incumbent. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason, however, ruled that the government offered “no workable plan” to investigate voters without violating their right to a secret ballot. A Democratic operative connected to Mary Peltola’s campaign and national Democrats reportedly recruited the second Sullivan to potentially draw votes away from the Republican incumbent. Peltola has denied any involvement. (New York Times / Washington Post / NBC News / Politico / CBS News / NPR / CNN)

5/ The Supreme Court rejected Trump’s last-minute attempt to set aside thousands of California mail-in ballots. The administration claimed that more than 20,000 people on California’s voter rolls were likely noncitizens and wanted to separate their ballots until their citizenship could be verified. California officials, however, said the list is filled with errors and warned that separating the ballots could disenfranchise eligible voters. Researchers found that about 42% of the names on the list aren’t on the state’s current voter rolls and that some were naturalized U.S. citizens. The Supreme Court issued its unsigned decision hours after the Justice Department filed its emergency appeal, offering no explanation and noting no dissents. (Associated Press / New York Times / Washington Post / CNN / Reuters / Bloomberg / NPR)

6/ Trump spent about half of his final speech before the midterms promoting his Washington renovation projects at the newly reopened Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. He held up pictures of plumbing materials, promoted the new White House helipad, and discussed his proposed triumphal arch. He suggested renaming the pool the “Trump Reflecting Pool” before calling it a joke. Trump also repeated his claim that vandals had damaged the pool. His own Justice Department, however, had determined that a faulty installation had caused the damage. When Trump finally turned to the election, he called it “the most important midterm, I believe, in our lifetime,” accused Democrats of being “a party that hates America,” and acknowledged that the president’s party usually “doesn’t win the midterms.” Republicans, he nevertheless claimed, “gave this a very strong shot.” (Axios / Associated Press / Washington Post / Reuters / CNN / NBC News)

7/ Trump said he would become “Mr. Veto” if Democrats win control of Congress. “They’ll be sending stuff up, you veto it,” he said, predicting that after “a month or two” of vetoes, Democrats would make a deal. (Bloomberg / The Hill)

8/ Trump said he would consider preemptive pardons for Elon Musk and his administration aides if Democrats win control of the House and start investigating them. “I would if I needed to. Sure,” Trump said. Democrats have signaled that they could investigate Musk’s work with the Department of Government Efficiency, as well as his companies’ federal contracts. Any pardons, however, would cover only federal crimes, not state prosecutions or civil suits. (Axios / Bloomberg / USA Today / New York Post)

The 2026 midterms are in 1 day; and the 2028 presidential election is in 736 days.