Today in one sentence: With 15 days until the 2024 election, Harris and Trump are essentially tied across the seven battleground states that will decide the race; Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC will give away $1 million a day until Election Day to a "random" registered voter who signs his petition supporting "free speech and the right to bear arms”; U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan ordered the release of a heavily redacted dossier of evidence in special counsel Jack Smith's Jan. 6 case against Trump; the five men who were wrongfully convicted in the Central Park Five jogger rape case in 1989 filed a defamation lawsuit against Trump over his remarks during the presidential debate last month; and Trump, who has refused to disclose any details about his physical or mental well-being, is reportedly “exhausted and refusing interviews.”

  • 📈 Election Polling Tracker.

  • Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
    Harris +1.8 points (538)
    Harris +1.6 points (Nate Silver)
    Harris +1.6 points (The Economist)
    Harris +0.9 points (RealClearPolitics)

  • 🔮 Election Forecast Tracker.

  • Trump wins 52 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (538)
    Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 45 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Trump wins 59 times out of 100. Harris wins 41 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)
    Trump wins 52 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
    Trump wins 58 times out of 100. Harris wins 41 times out of 100. (Super Model)

  • 📅 The WTFJHT Calendar: Now until then.

  • 📺 Oct. 23: Harris CNN town hall
    🗳️ Nov. 5: Election Day.
    ⚖️ Nov. 26: Trump is sentenced.

  • ✅ Get election ready: Register to vote, update your address, or request an absentee ballot at Vote.org, TurboVote.org, RocktheVote.org, or VoteFromAbroad.org.

1/ With 15 days until the 2024 election, Harris and Trump are essentially tied across the seven battleground states that will decide the race. The polls have been tightening over the last two weeks, with Harris now ahead by about one point on average – her smallest lead since the Democratic convention. And while Trump has gained some ground over the past couple weeks, the margin between Trump and Harris is 2 percentage points or less in all seven major swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Although Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points. Meaning: the race remains best characterized as a toss-up. (Washington Post / New York Times / FiveThirtyEight)

2/ Elon Musk’s pro-Trump super PAC will give away $1 million a day until Election Day to a “random” registered voter who signs his petition supporting “free speech and the right to bear arms.” Musk has also promised to pay people $47 for each registered voter they refer to sign the petition. Federal election law, however, prohibits paying citizens to persuade them to vote or to register a vote. It’s also illegal to solicit votes or registrations with “anything having monetary value, including cash, liquor, lottery chances, and welfare benefits such as food stamps.” Musk endorsed Trump this summer and has contributed $75 million into his America PAC. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro called Musk’s promised payments “deeply concerning” and “something that law enforcement could take a look at.” (Associated Press / NBC News / Bloomberg / New York Times / Wall Street Journal / NPR)

3/ U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan ordered the release of a heavily redacted dossier of evidence in special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 case against Trump. Chutkan rejected Trump’s request – and argument that releasing the material publicly would constitute election interference – to delay the evidence release until after the election, saying: “incidental effects on politics are not the same as a court’s intentional interference with them. As a result, it is in fact Defendant’s requested relief that risks undermining that public interest: If the court withheld information that the public otherwise had a right to access solely because of the potential political consequences of releasing it, that withholding could itself constitute – or appear to be – election interference.” (Politico / Axios / New York Times / USA Today)

4/ The five men who were wrongfully convicted in the Central Park Five jogger rape case in 1989 filed a defamation lawsuit against Trump over his remarks during the presidential debate last month. In 2002, the five men were exonerated when DNA linked another person to the attack. The victim of the attack sustained life-threatening injuries, but survived. Nevertheless, during the debate Trump said the men “admitted — they said, they pled guilty. And I said, well, if they pled guilty they badly hurt a person, killed a person ultimately. And if they pled guilty – then they pled we’re not guilty.” The lawsuit said Trump’s statements are “demonstrably false,” adding, “Plaintiffs never pled guilty to any crime and were subsequently cleared of all wrongdoing. Further the victims of the Central Park assaults were not killed.” The complaint further said that the men have “suffered injuries as a result of Defendant Trump’s false and defamatory statements.” (NBC News / Bloomberg / CNBC / Axios / Washington Post)

5/ Trump, who has refused to disclose any details about his physical or mental well-being, is reportedly “exhausted and refusing interviews.” In the past few weeks, Trump, 78, has canceled several interviews and public appearances, and declined to debate Harris a second time. Trump was the oldest president in American history at the time that he served, and is currently the oldest nominee in history. Trump, meanwhile, called Harris a “shit vice president,” spent the first 10 minutes of a speech telling stories about the size of Arnold Palmer’s penis, and then went to work a McDonald’s drive-thru window and fry station. No one ordered food. Instead, people received whatever Trump gave them. (Associated Press / Axios / Politico / Bloomberg / Washington Post / CBS News / NBC News / NPR)

✏️ Notables.

  1. Trump Media Whistleblower Blasts Company for Outsourcing Jobs Abroad as Betrayal of “America First”. “An internal Truth Social complaint reviewed by ProPublica calls for the firing of CEO Devin Nunes, alleging he has pursued an “America Last” hiring policy, “consistently lied” and made the company vulnerable to action by regulators.” (ProPublica)

  2. A handful of pro-Trump bettors have dumped more than $25 million into Polymarket, swaying election odds in his favor. “On Friday, Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market showed bettors giving Trump a whopping 60.1% chance of winning, while Harris’ chances were only 39.8%. That’s a massive difference from the start of October when the candidates were in dead heat.” (Fortune)

  3. A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market. “Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory.” (Wall Street Journal)

  4. Threats of Political Violence Are Distorting Reality. “Mobilizations by extremist groups in 2024 are on track to be at their lowest level since 2020, according to a new report, but public officials — particularly those who work on elections — continue to face hostile threats.” (The Trace)

  5. Election officials are hard at work to deliver fair, secure and accurate elections – despite a constant flow of attacks. “The 2024 election is rife with controversy, from the politics of the campaigns to the politics surrounding the administration of elections. Accusations of wrongdoing and ineptitude continue to plague election officials, despite their explanations of legal compliance and process.” (The Conversation)

  6. 1 in 5 Republicans want Trump to call election invalid if he loses. “The growing number of Republicans willing to shun democratic norms — and possibly embrace violence — comes as Trump continues to falsely claim the 2020 election was stolen from him and is saying the 2024 election is already rigged.” (Axios)

  7. Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini. “The former president has brought dehumanizing language into American presidential politics.” (The Atlantic)

  8. The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway. “If Trump overturns the 2024 election, here’s how it could happen.” (Politico)