Today in one sentence: Trump, who tried to overturn his 2020 election loss, said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House; Trump suggested that Liz Cheney should have guns “trained on her face," wondering how his prominent Republican critic would fare “with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her”; Trump said he wouldn't "mind" if someone had to "shoot through the fake news" to get to him; Trump didn’t rule out banning vaccines if he becomes president and said Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s plan to remove fluoride from public water "sounds OK to me"; House Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans “probably will” try to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act if they control Congress and Trump wins the White House; and at a rally hours before the election, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate used a microphone holder on his podium to pantomime the act of giving fellatio.

  • The presidential election is tomorrow.

  • How to manage stress and maintain perspective on election night in one sentence: Surround yourself with supportive people; set realistic expectations for results; mentally prepare for any outcome; accept uncertainty and lack of control; know the possibility of significant polling error; limit social media and news refreshes; remind yourself of past resilience; focus on the bigger picture beyond this election; and have a plan for post-election activities that bring you joy.

  • 📈 Polling Vibes.

  • Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
    Harris +1.1 points (FiveThirtyEight)
    Harris +0.8 points (Nate Silver)
    Harris +1.0 points (The Economist)
    Tied (RealClearPolitics)
    Harris +1.4 points (Split Ticket)

  • 🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  • Trump wins 52 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
    Trump wins 50 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Harris wins 50 times out of 100. Trump wins 50 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Harris wins 50 times out of 100. Trump wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
    Harris wins 53 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (270toWin)
    Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 47 times out of 100. (The Hill)
    Harris wins 51 times out of 100. Trump wins 49 times out of 100. (Metaculus)
    Trump wins 55 times out of 100. Harris wins 44 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  • Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  • So, can we trust the polls? “Recent changes add up to a case for cautious optimism on better accuracy, but that’s far from a guarantee.” (New York Times)

  • The early vote doesn’t reliably predict results. “4 reasons why you’re better off ignoring it.” (Silver Bulletin)

  • When polls close in battleground states on Election Day. (Associated Press)

  • When will we know 2024 election results? “A complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and races to watch in every state.” (FiveThirtyEight / New York Times/ CNN)

  • 📅 From Election Day to Inauguration Day.

  • Nov. 26: Trump is sentenced.
    Dec. 11: Deadline for governors to certify the election and submit their slate of electors.
    Dec. 17: Electors cast a ballot to formally vote for president and VP.
    Jan. 6, 2025: Members of the 119th Congress count Electoral College ballots.
    Jan. 20: The 60th Presidential Inauguration.

1/ Trump, who tried to overturn his 2020 election loss, said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House. “We did so well,” he added, “so now, every polling booth has hundreds of lawyers standing there.” Trump has not committed to accepting the 2024 election results unless he wins, baselessly claimed that the Democrats are “demonic” and “a bunch of cheats,” and suggested that Kamala Harris is nothing more than a “vessel.” Trump also complained about a new poll that shows him lagging behind in Iowa, a state he twice carried, saying “We got all this crap going on with the press and with fake stuff and fake polls,” suggesting that the poll from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom was put out by “one of my enemies.” And, at rally after rally, Trump has urged his supporters to deliver a victory “too big to rig,” telling them: “The only thing that can stop us is the cheating. It’s the only thing that can stop us.” In 2020, Trump prematurely declared victory from the White House, launched a legal and political effort to overturn his loss, which resulted in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Since then, Congress has passed the Electoral Count Reform Act, which makes it harder to stop the certification of the results by Congress on Jan. 6, which Trump tried to do four years ago. (New York Times / Politico / Washington Post / Associated Press / New York Times / CNN)

  • Four years after ‘stop the steal,’ an organized army emerges online. “The fringe group that tried to subvert Donald Trump’s 2020 loss has spent years preparing to contest the 2024 vote. This time, Elon Musk is on their side.” (Washington Post)

  • Republicans bring back fake electors in battlegrounds. “More than a dozen fake electors from 2020 are back this time. And several election deniers are among the new prospective Trump electors.” (Politico)

  • Trump claims “illegal alien” voting is rampant. His own party disagrees. “In a private video training session, a top Pennsylvania Republican National Committee official reassured a new poll watcher that undocumented people could not possibly vote in the state.” (ProPublica)

  • Supreme Court allows Pennsylvania to count contested provisional ballots, rejecting Republican plea. “The ruling is a victory for voting-rights advocates, who had sought to force counties — primarily Republican-controlled counties — to let voters cast a provisional ballot on Election Day if their mail-in ballot was to be rejected for a garden-variety error.” (Associated Press)

  • Supreme Court to review Louisiana congressional map after election. “The court’s decision will not impact this week’s elections, as the justices previously allowed the Legislature’s new map that includes a second majority-Black district to move forward until they resolve the case.” (The Hill / CNN / Bloomberg / Associated Press)

  • Democratic presidential campaign officials say 2024 won’t be like 2020 with Trump out of power. “Trump won’t succeed if he tries to stir a violent overthrow of the 2024 presidential election results for one ‘essential’ reason.” (Daily Beast)

2/ Trump suggested that Liz Cheney should have guns “trained on her face,” wondering how his prominent Republican critic would fare “with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her.” During an interview with Tucker Carlson, Trump said Cheney “is a very dumb individual, very dumb. She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. OK? Let’s see how she feels about it, you know when the guns are trained on her face.” Cheney responded in a post on social media that “this is how dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants to be a tyrant.” Kamala Harris, meanwhile, said Trump’s violent rhetoric about Cheney “must be disqualifying. Anyone who wants to be president of the United States who uses that kind of violent rhetoric is clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president.” (New York Times / Washington Post / Politico / Bloomberg / NPR / Axios / CBS News / CNN)

3/ Trump said he wouldn’t “mind” if someone had to “shoot through the fake news” to get to him. Trump made the remark while complaining about the bulletproof glass surrounding him onstage, saying: “I have this piece of glass here. But all we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don’t mind that so much. I don’t mind. I don’t mind.” Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, denied that Trump was wishing harm upon the media, but instead implying that the media was in danger and “should have had a glass protective shield, also.” (Politico / Washington Post / Axios / Associated Press)

  • Trump’s long legacy of inciting violence. “No president has appealed to Americans’ darkest impulses or sought to turn them on one another like Trump has.” (Mother Jones)

4/ Trump didn’t rule out banning vaccines if he becomes president and said Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s plan to remove fluoride from public water “sounds OK to me.” Trump said Kennedy Jr. would have a “big role in the administration” if he wins, calling the conspiracy theorists and vaccine skeptic a “very talented guy” who “has strong views.” Major public health groups, including the American Dental Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the CDC, support water fluoridation, citing studies showing that the mineral has reduced dental decay by at least 25%. The treatment of public water with small amounts of fluoride has been hailed as one of the most important public health interventions of the past century. Nevertheless, Kennedy Jr. said that among the first acts of a second Trump administration would be to “advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water.” (NBC News / New York Times / Washington Post)

5/ House Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans “probably will” try to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act if they control Congress and Trump wins the White House. The CHIPS and Science Act was passed in 2022 and will invest more than $200 billion over a five-year period to help the U.S. regain a leading position in semiconductor chip manufacturing. So far, the CHIPS act has allocated $19.5 billion to Arizona, $75 million to Georgia, $325 million to Michigan, $750 million to North Carolina, and $93 million to Pennsylvania. Johnson later said he “misheard the question.” Kamala Harris, meanwhile, said: “Let’s be clear about why he walked it back: Because it’s not popular, and their agenda is not popular. It is my plan and intention to continue to invest in American manufacturing, the work being done by American workers upholding and lifting up good union jobs.” Last week, Johnson said there would be “no Obamacare” if Trump won the White House, prompting the Trump campaign to issue a statement that repealing the Affordable Care Act isn’t a policy position. (CNN / Associated Press / Bloomberg / Axios / NBC News)

  • Why on Earth does Trump want to cancel the CHIPS Act? “A second Trump presidency would truly be a gift to Xi Jinping.” (Noahpinion)

6/ At a rally hours before the election, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate used a microphone holder on his podium to pantomime the act of giving fellatio. After he experienced microphone problems, Trump asked his supporters: “Do you want to see me knock the hell out of people backstage? I get so angry. I’m up here seething. I’m seething, I’m working my ass off with this stupid mic. I’m blowing out my left arm, now I’m going to blow out my right arm and I’m blowing out my damn throat too because of these stupid people.” Trump then took the microphone off the stand and began simulating fellatio. (The Atlantic / Daily Beast / New York Times)

  • Jeffrey Epstein details close relationship with Trump in newly released tapes. “Recordings from 2017 reveal Epstein talking for some ‘100 hours’ about the ex-president, journalist Michael Wolff says.” (The Guardian)

  • Listen to the Jeffrey Epstein tapes: “I was Donald Trump’s closest friend.” “Explosive tapes recorded by author Michael Wolff show Epstein claiming Trump liked to “fuck” his friends’ wives and first slept with Melania on the ‘Lolita Express.’” (Daily Beast)

  • Jeffrey Epstein unleashes opinion on former ‘friend’ Donald Trump in unearthed audio. “Explosive recordings released by journalist Michael Wolff and The Daily Beast reveal Epstein’s candid thoughts about his ‘charming’ but ‘horrible” ex-friend.’ (HuffPost)

  • Trump’s friendship with Jeffrey Epstein: Everything we know. (New York Magazine)

✏️ Notables.

  1. Russia suspected of plotting to send incendiary devices on U.S.-bound planes. “Two devices that ignited in Europe, officials say, were part of a covert operation to put them on cargo or passenger aircraft.” (Wall Street Journal)

  2. White House altered record of Biden’s ‘garbage’ remarks despite stenographer concerns. “Biden, according to a transcript prepared by the official White House stenographers, told the Latino group on a Tuesday evening video call, “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters — his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American. The transcript released by the White House press office, however, rendered the quote with an apostrophe, reading “supporter’s” rather than “supporters,” which aides said pointed to Biden criticizing Hinchcliffe, not the millions of Americans who are supporting Trump for president.” (Associated Press)

  3. Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout. “The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.” (FiveThirtyEight)

  4. Why are Democrats having such a hard time beating Trump? “The national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Harris victory as many might imagine.” (New York Times)

  5. How is it this close? “The most remarkable thing about the 2024 presidential election is that roughly half the electorate still supports Donald Trump.” (The Atlantic)

  6. Trump’s secret weapon. “America has long been obsessed with the concept of fairness. This election, it might cost us.” (Slate)

  7. ‘I think we’re in trouble’: Is there a future for MAGA after Trump? “Trump could be reelected. But what happens to his movement after that?” (Politico)

  8. There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands. “Some pollsters aren’t telling you what their data really says.” (Silver Bulletin)

  9. The polls are underestimating the importance of climate change. “The climate crisis is the ultimate ‘kitchen table’ issue.” (Rolling Stone)

Five years ago today: Day 1019: Threatened.