Today in one sentence: Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on China on his first day in office; Biden proposed a rule to allow Medicare and Medicaid to cover weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound; Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire deal, pausing the year-long conflict in southern Lebanon and northern Israel; Trump’s return to the White House revives the potential U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization; Trump aide Boris Epshteyn was accused of soliciting payments to promote appointees; Trump’s transition team intends to bypass FBI background checks for political appointees by granting them immediate security clearances on Inauguration Day; and Trump’s incoming “border czar” threatened to imprison Denver Mayor Mike Johnston for pledging to resist federal efforts to deport millions of immigrants.

1/ Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on China on his first day in office, likely raising U.S. consumer prices, impacting businesses, and reshaping trade dynamics. The decision may also violate the free trade pact between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, known as the USMCA. The three countries are the largest U.S. trading partners. Chinese products are already subject to average levies of about 15%. In a pair of posts, Trump said the new tariffs were tied directly to stopping the flows of drugs and migrants, and would remain in place “until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” Trump’s tariffs could impact American automotive manufacturing and agriculture, which depend on cross-border trade with Canada, Mexico, and China – countries that collectively account for over one-third of U.S. imports and exports. In 2023, these nations purchased over $1 trillion in U.S. exports and supplied $1.5 trillion in goods and services, supporting tens of millions of American jobs. (New York Times / Washington Post / Reuters / Axios / Associated Press / Wall Street Journal / Politico)

  • 69% of Americans think Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher prices. 44% said they are planning purchases ahead of Trump entering office, and 62% said they feel they’ll have to adjust their 2025 financial plans. (The Guardian)

  • 💭 Why does this matter? Tariffs directly affect the cost of everyday goods, increasing prices for households while disrupting supply chains for businesses. The proposed measures could hinder economic growth by raising inflation, limiting purchasing power, and reducing employment in trade-dependent industries. These effects ripple across the economy, influencing federal monetary policies and international trade relations. Understanding these impacts is critical as they touch every layer of economic life, from local businesses to global markets.

  • 🌐 What are potential long-term consequences of these tariffs? Over time, persistent tariffs could reshape trade patterns, encouraging businesses to relocate manufacturing to countries outside of the tariffed regions or back to the U.S. While this might boost certain domestic industries, the overall economy could suffer from reduced efficiency, higher production costs, and strained international relationships. Prolonged trade disputes may also deter foreign investment in the U.S., hinder global economic cooperation, and increase economic volatility.

2/ Biden proposed a rule to allow Medicare and Medicaid to cover weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound, which could extend access to millions of obese Americans. The measure, estimated to cost $35 billion over the next decade, faces opposition from Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s HHS Secretary nominee, who advocates investing in healthy food and fitness programs instead. Proponents argue the drugs could reduce long-term healthcare costs by addressing obesity-related conditions. About 40% of Americans are considered obese and at risk of further health complications, according to the CDC. “It’s a good day for anyone who suffers from obesity,” current HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said. “It’s a game changer for Americans who can’t afford these drugs otherwise.” The rule is set to be fianlized in January – shortly after Trump assumes office, who is not required to implement any or all of the proposal. (Associated Press / Bloomberg / Axios / Washington Post / ABC News)

3/ Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire deal, pausing the year-long conflict in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. “The Security Cabinet approved the United States’ proposal for a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon this evening, with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement. Netanyahu said he had recommended that his Cabinet agree to the deal with Hezbollah to allow Israel to focus on “the Iranian threat” and to isolate Hamas. Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militia and political party, began trading fire with Israel a day after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are designated terrorist organizations by the U.S. The deal set to go into effect Wednesday at 4 a.m. local time, and it’s “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.” Biden said the U.S. and France “will make sure this deal is implemented fully.” (NPR / New York Times / Washington Post / NBC News / Politico / Bloomberg / Wall Street Journal)

✏️ Notables.

  1. Trump’s return to the White House revives the potential U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization, threatening global health funding. The possible U.S. withdrawal from the WHO would eliminate the group’s top governmental donor, which supplies up to $816 million annually, weakening the organization’s ability to address global health crises. The move would also hinder U.S. access to essential global health resources, including vaccine development and international drug markets. (Politico)

  2. Trump aide Boris Epshteyn was accused of soliciting payments to promote appointees. Epshteyn allegedly requested monthly fees ranging from $30,000 to $100,000 to promote potential appointees in the Trump administration, including Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent and a defense contractor. (New York Times / CNN / Washington Post)

  3. Trump’s transition team intends to bypass FBI background checks for political appointees by granting them immediate security clearances on Inauguration Day, deferring vetting until after Trump takes office and installs his own officials. (The Guardian)

  4. Trump’s incoming “border czar” threatened to imprison Denver Mayor Mike Johnston for pledging to resist federal efforts to deport millions of immigrants. Tom Homan cited federal laws against harboring undocumented immigrants and impeding law enforcement as grounds for his statement. Johnston, meanwhile, reaffirmed support for mass protests against deportations. Homan emphasized the administration’s resolve to carry out mass deportations with or without local cooperation, reinstate policies like “Remain in Mexico,” and use executive orders to bypass Congress. (Bloomberg / ABC News / The Hill)

🔍 Dept. of Context and Consequence.

News analysis and opinions on today’s key headlines – why they matter and what’s at stake.

  1. Trump’s evasion of January 6 accountability sets troubling precedents for rule of law and future presidents. Donald Trump’s successful delay of federal prosecutions related to January 6 and classified documents establishes a precedent of limited accountability for presidential actions, reinforced by a Supreme Court ruling granting partial immunity for official acts. Special counsel Jack Smith’s dismissal of cases ahead of Trump’s inauguration marks a victory for Trump, undermining efforts to uphold the rule of law and raising concerns about future abuses of power. This episode underscores the tension between prosecuting high-stakes cases against former presidents and the political and institutional risks of inaction. (CNN)

  2. Trump evades accountability for January 6 and classified documents, reshaping the rule of law. Special Counsel Jack Smith dismissed federal charges against Trump related to January 6 and classified documents, citing procedural barriers and Trump’s impending presidency. Trump’s delay tactics and Supreme Court rulings on presidential immunity helped him avoid legal consequences, sending a message that high office can shield violations of the law. This lack of accountability threatens the justice system’s integrity and emboldens Trump to govern without restraint, with long-term implications for democratic norms and presidential power. (The Atlantic)

  3. Trump’s escape from January 6 accountability highlights failures across the justice system and institutional norms. Special Counsel Jack Smith’s dismissal of charges against Trump for election interference and classified document misuse underscores systemic failures within the justice system, from delayed investigations to Supreme Court decisions granting expansive presidential immunity. Institutional hesitancy to challenge norms allowed Trump to exploit legal loopholes and procedural safeguards, leaving his conduct unpunished. This outcome reflects a troubling shift toward unchecked executive power, with long-term risks to the rule of law and democratic accountability. (Slate)

  4. Trump’s plan to seize budget control threatens Congress’s constitutional power over federal spending. Trump’s second-term plan to assert unilateral control over federal spending through “impoundment” threatens to undermine Congress’s constitutional authority over the budget. By reviving a long-discredited legal theory, Trump aims to withhold funding from programs he opposes, potentially targeting perceived adversaries. Experts warn this strategy could provoke a constitutional crisis, further consolidating executive power and weakening the separation of powers central to American democracy. (ProPublica)

  5. Polls reveal Americans’ conflicting views on Trump’s policies as his second term begins. Americans show broad but fragile support for Trump’s mass deportation and tariff plans, with significant opposition emerging when consequences such as economic strain and family separations are considered. Polls suggest public backing for these policies often diminishes when linked to higher costs, labor shortages, or military enforcement. This reveals a disconnect between the abstract appeal of Trump’s agenda and its real-world implications, highlighting potential challenges in implementation and public satisfaction. (Washington Post)

  6. Politically homeless Americans urged to embrace classical liberal values amid Trump’s rise. Eliot Cohen reflects on the state of the politically “homeless” in a polarized America, advocating for a return to classical liberal principles rooted in freedom, tolerance, and moral restraint. He critiques both MAGA populism and progressive activism as destructive forces, urging disillusioned citizens to prioritize enduring values over short-term political agendas. Cohen calls for sustained engagement in education and public discourse to cultivate thoughtful citizenship, acknowledging the long-term nature of rebuilding America’s democratic ethos. (The Atlantic)

  7. Trump’s popular-vote majority erodes, challenging claims of an “unprecedented mandate.” Trump’s popular-vote margin has narrowed to 1.58%, dropping below 50%, highlighting the close nature of the 2024 election despite his electoral victory. His Electoral College win, while legitimate, is smaller than many past presidents, and his Republican House majority is precariously slim. Analysts question Trump’s sweeping mandate claims as his governing approach risks deepening divisions in an already polarized nation. Comparing his plans to Lincoln’s Civil War-era leadership underscores the dangers of overreach in an administration backed by less than half the electorate. (New York Magazine)

  • 📅 From Election Day to Inauguration Day.

  • Nov. 27-28: Thanksgiving – NO WTFJHT
    Dec. 11: Deadline for governors to certify the election and submit their slate of electors.
    Dec. 17: Electors formally vote for president and VP.
    Dec. 20: Government funding expires.
    Dec. 24-25: Christmas – NO WTFJHT
    Dec. 31-Jan 1., 2025: New Year’s – NO WTFJHT
    Jan. 3: Members of the 119th Congress are sworn in.
    Jan. 6: Congress counts Electoral College ballots.
    Jan. 20: Trump’s Presidential Inauguration.

  • The midterm elections are in 712 days.

Five years ago today: Day 1041: Bleak.
Six years ago today: Day 676: Substantial damages.