Today in one sentence: Democrats are expected to take control of the House of Representatives but fall short in the Senate; national polls show that 55% of voters prefer Democratic control of the House; some polls, however, show the Democratic edge shrinking; at least 31 million people have voted early nationwide; and U.S. intelligence officials have seen no evidence of any attempts to tamper with the midterm election systems.

Today in one sentence: Democrats are expected to take control of the House of Representatives but fall short in the Senate; national polls show that 55% of voters prefer Democratic control of the House; some polls, however, show the Democratic edge shrinking; at least 31 million people have voted early nationwide; and U.S. intelligence officials have seen no evidence of any attempts to tamper with the midterm election systems.

🗳 Dept. of Midterms 2018.

With one day to go, I’ll be keeping this space updated throughout the midterms with the latest polls and live blogs.

  1. Forecasts: New York Times / Real Clear Politics / Five Thirty Eight: House / Senate

  2. Live Blogs: Washington Post / The Guardian / CNN / Bloomberg

  3. Voter Guide: How, when and where to vote on Tuesday. (New York Times / Bloomberg)

  4. How to watch the midterms: A guide. (Five Thirty Eight)

  5. Races to watch and how to follow them. (Bloomberg / CNN)

  6. What’s at stake, explained. (Vox)

  7. 5 possible outcomes and what they’d mean. (Washington Post)

  8. Election Day misinformation. What to look for. (New York Times)

The Latest.

  1. The Georgia secretary of state and Republican candidate for governor accused Democrats of allegedly trying to hack the state’s voter registration system. Brian Kemp, who is in a tight race with Stacey Abrams, alleged that the state Democratic Party made a “failed attempt to hack the state’s voter registration system” and announced that his office was opening an investigation. Kemp said his office also alerted the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI, but he offered no evidence to back up his allegation. Democrats called it a “political stunt” days before the election. (New York Times / NBC News / Washington Post)

  2. U.S. intelligence officials have seen no evidence of attempts to tamper with the voting systems or election infrastructure. (NBC News)

  3. This year’s early voting numbers in at least 12 states have already surpassed those from the 2014 midterm election. First-time voters have cast 5% or more of the early vote in 10 states. (CNN)

  4. At least 31 million people have voted early nationwide. At this point in the 2014 midterms, 19 million voted early. (CNN)

  5. Early voter turnout in Texas surpassed the entire turnout in the 2014 midterm election. Over 4.5 million people in Texas cast in-person ballots in this year’s early voting period and more than 360,000 people have cast mail-in ballots in 30 counties alone. (Texas Tribune)

  6. Georgia and Texas voting machines have inexplicably deleted some people’s votes for Democratic candidates or switched them to Republican votes. Experts blamed the errors on outdated software and old machines. (Politico)

  7. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted nine House races toward Democrats. (The Hill)

  8. 55% of voters prefer Democratic control of the House while 42% want Republicans to stay in power. (CNN)

  9. 50% of likely voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 43% want Republicans in charge – down from Democrats’ 9-point advantage in October. (NBC News)

  10. 43% of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district on a generic congressional ballot compared with 40% who would vote for the Republican candidate. (Politico)

  11. Trump’s approval rating stands at 39%, with 55% disapproving – slightly worse than in early October, when 41% approved of his performance and 52% disapproved. (CNN)

Notables.

  1. The Trump administration expects a number of Cabinet secretaries and top White House aides to be fired or actively pushed out after the midterms. Jeff Sessions, Rod Rosenstein, Sarah Sanders, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross all face uncertain futures. (Washington Post)

  2. Financial penalties against banks and big companies have declined sharply during the first 20 months of the Trump presidency. There has been a 62% drop in penalties imposed by the S.E.C. and a 72% decline in corporate penalties from the Justice Department’s criminal prosecutions compared to the Obama administration. (New York Times)

  3. U.S. businesses paid $4.4 billion in tariffs in September – up more than 50% from a year ago. The increase was driven by $1.4 billion in Trump administration tariffs on Chinese imports and foreign steel and aluminum. (CNBC)

  4. NBC aired the racist anti-immigration political ad approved by Trump. After airing the ad, both NBC and Fox News pulled it. CNN, however, rejected the ad outright, saying “that this ad is racist.” (New York Times / Washington Post / CNN)

  5. A Navy reconnaissance plane in international airspace over the Black Sea was intercepted by a Russian fighter jet in an unsafe manner. (CNN)

  6. Trump’s deployment of troops to the U.S.-Mexico border is estimated to cost $220 million by year-end. A Pentagon risk assessment found that the caravan did not pose a threat to the United States. (CNBC / Washington Post)

  7. About “200 unregulated armed militia members [are] currently operating along the southwest border,” according to a planning document for Army commanders leading the 5,200 troops Trump deployed at the border. The groups “operate under the guise of citizen patrols supporting” border officials. (Newsweek / HuffPost)

  8. A group of Idaho teachers dressed up as a wall with the phrase “Make America Great Again” on it for Halloween. The district Superintendent called the costumes “clearly insensitive and inappropriate.” (CNN)

  9. Trump’s name was invoked in direct connection with 17 cases of criminal violent acts, threats of violence, or allegations of assault. Nearly all of the cases – 16 out of 17 – include court documents and direct evidence of someone echoing presidential rhetoric, not protesting it. The suspects and perpetrators in the 17 cases are mostly white men, while the victims represent a variety of minority groups, including African-Americans, Latinos, Muslims, and gay men. (ABC News)

  10. Trump dismissed his administration’s National Climate Assessment. Trump didn’t read the report, but said he believes climate change will “probably” change back. (Axois)