Today in one sentence: Venezuela's captured President Nicolás Maduro pleaded not guilty in a Manhattan federal courtroom to U.S. drug and weapons charges; a single, anonymous trader made roughly $400,000 on Polymarket after placing several heavily concentrated bets that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would lose power shortly before the U.S. military captured him; the Pentagon moved to demote Sen. Mark Kelly’s retired Navy rank and cut his military pension; Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ended his re-election bid and won’t seek a third term; the CDC cut its childhood vaccine schedule, dropping routine immunization from 17 diseases down to 11; and Jack Smith told the House Judiciary Committee in a closed-door deposition that his team had “proof beyond a reasonable doubt” to convict Trump in the federal election interference and classified documents cases.

1/ Venezuela’s captured President Nicolás Maduro pleaded not guilty in a Manhattan federal courtroom to U.S. drug and weapons charges, repeatedly rejecting the court’s authority and insisting, “I am innocent,” “I am still president of my country,” and “I was captured at my home in Caracas.” His wife, Cilia Flores, also pleaded not guilty, calling herself “the first lady of the Republic of Venezuela.” Defense lawyers said there were “questions about the legality of his military abduction” and didn’t seek bail, leaving both in detention until a March 17 hearing. In Caracas, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as acting president, while the government issued a decree ordering security forces to arrest anyone accused of supporting what it called a U.S. attack. In Washington, lawmakers received classified briefings after the fact, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune saying he wasn’t told in advance but felt “sufficiently notified.” (ABC News / Washington Post / New York Times / NPR / Politico / Associated Press / Axios / Wall Street Journal / Bloomberg / CNBC / CNN)

  • 🤔 HOW WE GOT HERE

  • On Saturday, Jan. 3, U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a pre-dawn operation in Caracas, and flew them to New York to face U.S. charges including narco-terrorism, drug trafficking and weapons offenses. Trump said the U.S. had carried out a “large-scale strike” and the pair were “captured and flown out of the Country.” The Trump administration, however, framed the seizure as a law-enforcement move tied to federal indictments, while Venezuelan officials described it as an attack,

  • On Sunday, Trump tole reporters that “We’re in charge” of Venezuela and “We’re going to run it, fix it,” while refusing to explain what U.S. control meant in practice. He warned Venezuela’s acting leader, Delcy Rodríguez, “If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” and said he wanted “total access,” including “access to the oil.” Rodríguez first denounced the operation as an “atrocity” and said Venezuela “will never return to being the colony of another empire,” but later said “We invite the U.S. government to collaborate with us,” adding, “Our people and our region deserve peace and dialogue, not war.”

  • Trump promised that U.S. companies will “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.” He argued Venezuela “stole” American-built assets, saying, “We built Venezuela’s oil industry with American talent,” and insisted: “We’re going to take our oil back.”

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, tried to narrow Trump’s “run Venezuela” threat into an oil-and-sanctions campaign, saying the U.S. was not “running” the country so much as “running policy.” He said Washington would keep an “oil quarantine” and a tanker blockade as leverage, arguing, “That remains in place, and that’s a tremendous amount of leverage,” and adding, “We continue with that quarantine, and we expect to see that there will be changes.” Rubio also dismissed comparisons to past U.S. occupations, saying, “This is not the Middle East,” and “This is the Western Hemisphere,” while also stressing that Washington is “going to judge everything by what they do.”

  • U.S. allies broke with Washington and joined Russia and China at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting to condemn the U.S. raid. U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter, while U.S. ambassador Mike Waltz told the council there was “no war against Venezuela or its people,” and instead insisted that “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation.” France’s deputy ambassador warned the assault “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”

  • Sources: New York Times / New York Times / NBC News / The Atlantic / Axios / Associated Press / Politico / ABC News / CNBC / NPR / Washington Post / NBC News / Bloomberg / CNN

  • poll/ 33% of Americans said they approve of the U.S. military strike on Venezuela, while 72% said they worry the U.S. will become too involved there. The poll found 65% of Republicans supported the operation, compared with 11% of Democrats and 23% of independents. About 30% of Americans overall said they support sending U.S. troops to be stationed in Venezuela, while roughly the same number said they support the U.S. taking control of the country’s oil fields. (Reuters)

  • poll/ 63% of voters opposed U.S. military action inside Venezuela, while 25% supported it and the rest were unsure. When framed as removing Maduro, 60% of likely voters opposed sending U.S. troops and 33% supported it in a December Data for Progress poll, while a YouGov poll found 53% opposed and 18% in favor. (Strength in Numbers)

2/ A single, anonymous trader made roughly $400,000 on Polymarket after placing several heavily concentrated bets that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would lose power shortly before the U.S. military captured him, including a final wager minutes before Trump ordered the U.S. military operation. The trades came from a brand-new account that committed about $34,000 to low-probability contracts. Some Polymarket analysts and traders suggested the timing and size of the wagers point to someone with advance knowledge of the U.S. operation, potentially a government insider or a contractor. Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, meanwhile, said suspected insiders are quickly identified by users, saying, “It’s not like it’s done in darkness.” (Wall Street Journal / Axios / The Verge / Popular Information)

3/ Trump repeated his threat that the U.S. “need[s] Greenland from the standpoint of national security,” said Cuba was “ready to fall” after Venezuela’s leadership was seized, and suggested military action against Colombia and Mexico over drug trafficking. He described Colombia as “run by a sick man” and, when asked about targeting Colombia, said, “It sounds good to me,” while also saying drugs were “pouring” through Mexico and that “we’re going to have to do something.” Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen rejected Trump’s threat of a U.S. takeover, saying Trump “should be taken seriously” and warning that a U.S. attack on a NATO ally would end the alliance. Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum publicly downplayed Trump’s invasion talk as not serious while reiterating her opposition to a U.S. military presence in Mexico. (New York Times / CNBC / New York Times / Bloomberg / The Guardian / Politico / Associated Press / Reuters / ABC News / NPR / New York Times / Bloomberg)

4/ The Pentagon moved to demote Sen. Mark Kelly’s retired Navy rank and cut his military pension, accusing the Arizona Democrat of “seditious” and “reckless misconduct” over a video reminding troops they can refuse illegal orders. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the department has started proceedings for a retirement downgrade review and issued a formal letter of censure, saying Kelly’s comments undermined “good order and military discipline.” The move stops short of recalling Kelly to active duty or pursuing a court-martial. Kelly, meanwhile, called it political retaliation and that “Pete Hegseth wants to send the message to every single retired servicemember that if they say something he or Donald Trump doesn’t like, they will come after them the same way.” (Reuters / Bloomberg / Washington Post / Politico / Wall Street Journal / New York Times)

5/ Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ended his re-election bid and won’t seek a third term, saying he couldn’t campaign and fully focus on fraud allegations tied to state-administered safety net programs. “Every minute I spend defending my own political interests would be a minute I can’t spend defending the people of Minnesota,” Walz said, adding that he wanted to “focus on the work.” The allegations involve claims that organized groups exploited Minnesota-administered child care and pandemic-era food aid programs, including the Feeding Our Future case, to bill the government for services that weren’t provided, costing taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars. The decision reshapes the 2026 race, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar considering a run for governor. The White House, meanwhile, accused Walz of allowing “rampant fraud” and warned that dropping out wouldn’t “shield him from the consequences of his actions.” (Washington Post / Politico / NBC News / Associated Press / New York Times / Axios)

6/ The CDC cut its childhood vaccine schedule, dropping routine immunization from 17 diseases down to 11. Health and Human Services said the move was meant to “restore trust in public health” after the Covid pandemic, but the changes bypassed the CDC’s established process of public evidence reviews and formal votes by an independent advisory committee. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also removed the committee’s prior members last year, and the revised schedule was issued by HHS and CDC leadership without a full advisory review or vote. The new guidance more closely tracks with Denmark’s schedule, which doesn’t broadly recommend childhood vaccination against influenza, rotavirus, hepatitis A, meningococcal disease or RSV. (NBC News / CNN / Associated Press / Bloomberg / New York Times / Washington Post / Politico / Wall Street Journal)

  • U.S. flu infections are at their highest level since the Covid pandemic, with at least 11 million cases and 5,000 deaths so far this season. The CDC classified the outbreak, classified as “moderately severe.” (Bloomberg)

7/ Jack Smith told the House Judiciary Committee in a closed-door deposition that his team had “proof beyond a reasonable doubt” to convict Trump in the federal election interference and classified documents cases, which were dropped after Trump returned to office. Smith said Trump was “by a large measure the most culpable and most responsible person in this conspiracy” and that the Jan. 6, 2021, attack “does not happen without him,” adding that the evidence showed Trump “caused it and that he exploited it and that it was foreseeable to him.” Smith said Biden gave him “No” instructions and that he hadn’t spoken to Biden about the cases “in any way,” and argued that there was “no historical analog for what President Trump did in this case.” The Republican-led committee released the transcript and video on New Year’s Eve. (The Guardian / ABC News / NBC News / Reuters / Associated Press / New York Times / Politico / CNN / Bloomberg / Axios)

⏭️ Notably Next: The 2026 midterms are in 302 days; the 2028 presidential election is in 1,037 days.

Four years ago today: Day 351: "Follow the facts."
Five years ago today: Day 1447: "Save America."
Six years ago today: Day 1081: "Reign of terror."
Eight years ago today: Day 351: Possible obstruction.