Today in One Sentence. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton privately blamed the Iran war and high fuel prices for his struggling Senate campaign; Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers called for an end to Trump’s “tariff war” with Canada; the primary Senate Republican super PAC plans to spend $5 million to defend Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina; Trump’s tariffs added an estimated 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation; ABC News deleted the report claiming companies backed by Trump’s sons had secured more than $6 billion in government contracts; Kimberly Guilfoyle reportedly urged a Trump donor to pay her $100,000 American Express bill; ICE has investigated more than 150 voter-registration groups ahead of the midterm elections; the World Health Organization couldn’t assess the risk of a possible plague outbreak after a Russian anti-plague institute researcher died of pneumonia of unknown origin; and Trump proposed turning his West Palm Beach golf club into a Camp David-type presidential retreat for future presidents and visiting foreign leaders.

1/ Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton privately blamed the Iran war and high fuel prices for his struggling Senate campaign. “It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” he told donors and lobbyists at a closed-door fundraiser, calling affordability “by far our biggest problem.” Paxton also complained that Washington was controlling his campaign messaging. “I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming – you know – from D.C.,” Paxton said, adding, “I don’t control message or what we’re doing.” While Paxton claimed that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas “dropped our numbers,” Trump nevertheless is making his third trip to Texas in less than a month to campaign for Paxton. Polls show Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead despite Republicans spending more than $200 million on the race. Trump won the state by more than 13 points in 2024. (Axios / Politico / CNN / The Hill / The Guardian / Politico / New York Times)

2/ Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers called for an end to Trump’s “tariff war” with Canada, saying “here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy.” Trump imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods in August, prompting retaliatory tariffs that threaten Michigan’s auto industry because it depends on cross-border supply chains. Nevertheless, Trump, who endorsed Rogers, said “I viewed [Rogers] as saying that he thinks Canada should make a deal.” The Cook Political Report rates Rogers’ race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a “toss-up.” (Politico / CNN / Axios / Reuters / The Hill / Wall Street Journal)

  • Sen. Susan Collins distanced herself from Trump and defended her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh in her first debate with Democrat Troy Jackson. Asked whether she would appear with Trump if he campaigned in Maine, Collins said she doubted he would come: “I’m not exactly his favorite senator.” (Bloomberg / Washington Post)

3/ The primary Senate Republican super PAC plans to spend $5 million to defend Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina. Trump won the state by about 18 points in 2024. Graham, appointed after her brother Lindsey Graham died in July, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a race recent polls show is close. Trump, meanwhile, used an anti-trans slur three times to attack Andrews, who is not transgender, while urging South Carolina voters to elect Graham. Democrats need to flip four seats to take control of the Senate. (Axios / Associated Press / Bloomberg / Washington Post / CBS News / NBC News / MS Now / Mediaite)

  • The FCC is considering a request by a conservative group to allow political groups to allow unsolicited political robocalls to cellphones, including AI-generated voices. Federal law currently bans most robocalls to cellphones without prior consent. (Associated Press)

4/ Trump’s tariffs added an estimated 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation. Without the tariffs, goods prices would have fallen slightly The estimate reflects the 12 months ending in February 2026, when the inflationary effect peaked. Nearly 90% of Trump’s 2025 tariffs passed through to U.S. import prices almost immediately. Roughly a third of the increase in consumer goods prices came from American-made goods as manufacturers paid more for imported materials and raised their own prices. (Axios / Liberty Street Economics / Washington Post)

5/ UPDATE: ABC News deleted the report claiming companies backed by Trump’s sons had secured more than $6 billion in government contracts. “1789 Capital does not have a ‘major stake’ in Anduril,” a spokesperson for venture capital firm 1789 Capital. “It’s false to say Vulcan, Firehawk, and PsiQuantum are ‘backed by Don Jr and Eric Trump.’” (Mediaite / ABC News - Internet Archive)

  • Companies that Trump Jr. and Eric Trump have invested in have won more than $6 billion in federal contracts. Since then, Trump Jr.’s firm, 1789 Capital, took a stake in Anduril last year, the AI defense company has won 135 government contracts and received about $1.8 billion under those agreements. Yesterday, Trump announced another $2.9 billion in Navy support for an Anduril submarine-parts facility in Maryland. Other Trump Jr.-backed companies secured military contracts for rocket engines and automated submarine factories. Meanwhile, Foundation Future Industries won a $24 million contract for robotics startup, where Eric Trump is the chief strategy adviser. The brothers also hold indirect investments in drone maker Powerus, which also won an Air Force contract worth up to $90 million. (ABC News)

6/ Kimberly Guilfoyle reportedly urged a Trump donor to pay her $100,000 American Express bill. “It won’t show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express,” Trump Jr.’s former fiancée texted Eric Deters days before her Senate confirmation hearing as ambassador to Greece. “Honey please I need you to get this done for me today,” she added. The messages also show Guilfoyle forwarding Deters’ tax dispute to the IRS commissioner and updating him on her efforts to lobby the Justice Department on his behalf. Deters never made the payment. (Wall Street Journal)

7/ ICE has investigated more than 150 voter-registration groups ahead of the midterm elections. It’s also considered deploying undercover agents to investigate groups suspected of helping noncitizens register to vote. Meanwhile, internal Department of Homeland Security documents show that ICE has collected nearly 100 million records as part of its effort to identify noncitizens illegally registering or voting. The records included 48.4 million supplied by Heather Honey, a senior DHS adviser who promoted false claims about the 2020 election, from unidentified “independent sources of information,” and another 50.6 million obtained from the Justice Department. Noncitizen voting is rare, and there is no credible evidence that it has changed the outcome of an election. (New York Times / CNN / Democracy Docket)

8/ The World Health Organization couldn’t assess the risk of a possible plague outbreak after a Russian anti-plague institute researcher died of pneumonia of unknown origin. WHO officials don’t know what caused her illness, but Russia denied any accident at the lab and maintained that “there are no epidemic risks,” despite quarantining or monitoring about 200 of her contacts. The WHO is also seeking clarification about unconfirmed reports that a second lab employee developing pneumonia of unknown cause. The U.S., meanwhile, sent Moscow a formal diplomatic warning over its failure to disclose details about the death. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the information Russia had shared as “still quite limited,” adding: “Maybe there’s nothing there. Maybe it’s bigger than we thought. We don’t know.” Trump, however, maintained that the U.S. didn’t believe the incident involved a bioweapon: “We’re going to find out soon enough, but we don’t think so.” He acknowledged that “Russia is not saying much,” but repeated Moscow’s assurances that the situation was under control. Trump also claimed he had a call scheduled with Putin to discuss the incident. Kremlin, however, denied that a call had been arranged. (New York Times / CNN / Politico / Associated Press / Wall Street Journal / ABC News / Washington Post / CNBC / Bloomberg)

9/ Trump proposed turning his West Palm Beach golf club into a Camp David-type presidential retreat for future presidents and visiting foreign leaders. His attorney asked Palm Beach County, which owns the land, to provide a parcel to the federal government for a presidential residence. Trump would pay for construction, and his company would continue operating the private club and paying its lease. (Washington Post / The Hill / Mediaite)

The 2026 midterms are in 27 days; and the 2028 presidential election is in 762 days.