Today in one sentence: Trump will deliver his first State of the Union of his second term with his approval rating near an all-time low, and polling showing that 55% of Americans disapprove of his job performance; at least 45 congressional Democrats plan to skip Trump’s State of the Union; Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger will deliver the Democrats response to Trump’s State of the Union, putting her “kitchen-table” affordability message at the center of their midterm strategy; Trump’s promised 15% “worldwide” tariffs went into effect at 10%; the Justice Department withheld some Epstein files tied to allegations that Trump sexually abused a minor and removed other documents where accusations against Epstein also mentioned Trump; the Pentagon privately warned Trump that a major military strike against Iran could turn into a prolonged campaign that would likely produce U.S. and allied casualties and drain air-defense interceptors; 61% of Americans think Trump has “become erratic with age”; 57% of Trump’s critics say his immigration crackdown is the worst thing he’s done in his second term; 26% of independents approve of the job Trump is doing as president; and 10% of Americans say things are going well in the country, while 34% say things could be better, and 52% say things are going poorly and major, disruptive change is needed.

1/ Trump will deliver his first State of the Union of his second term with his approval rating near an all-time low, and polling showing that 55% of Americans disapprove of his job performance. Trump is expected to use the prime-time speech to argue that the economy is “strong, prosperous and respected,” pointing to last year’s tax cuts, job growth, lower gasoline prices, and stock market gains as he tries to address affordability. The speech comes days after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, forcing him to retreat from his signature economic policy. Trump is also expected to frame his immigration crackdown as a success that “turned our country around from the brink of disaster” even federal agents killed two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis. The midterms are less than nine months away, and Republicans are defending narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. (Associated Press / Wall Street Journal / ABC News / NBC News / Politico / The Guardian / Bloomberg / CNBC / NPR / New York Times / Silver Bulletin)

  • 📺 Trump’s Statue of the Union. Trump is expected to begin at 9 pm ET, and the speech will be broadcast live on most major networks and cable news channels (ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, C-SPAN and PBS). Prediction markets are forecasting that Trump will speak for more than 100 minutes.

2/ At least 45 congressional Democrats plan to skip Trump’s State of the Union, while others will use their guest seats to bring survivors of Jeffrey Epstein’s abuse into the House as a public demand for “transparency and accountability” around the administration’s partial release of files. The boycott is expected to send dozens of lawmakers to counterprogramming, including MoveOn’s “People’s State of the Union” on the National Mall. (ABC News / NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Axios)

  • The U.S. women’s hockey team declined Trump’s invitation to attend the State of the Union, days after winning Olympic gold in Milan. USA Hockey said the players could not travel because of “previously scheduled academic and professional commitments” after the Games. (The Athletic)

  • The U.S. men’s hockey team is expected to attend Trump’s State of the Union. Trump invited the players after the team won the Olympic gold medal in an overtime victory against Canada. During a call with the players, Trump joked that he would be impeached if he didn’t also invite the women’s team. (NBC News)

  • FBI Director Kash Patel defended chugging beer and partying in the locker room after the men’s Olympic hockey team won the gold medal. Patel said the players invited him to celebrate, and the FBI said the Italy trip was official business with any personal time reimbursed. (Washington Post / CNN)

3/ Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger will deliver the Democrats response to Trump’s State of the Union, putting her “kitchen-table” affordability message at the center of their midterm strategy. Spanberger’s aides said she will focus on rising costs and what families “expect and deserve,” arguing Democrats should be judged on whether they “deliver” on prices people feel in groceries, housing, and utilities. She’s expected to hit on the “chaos” Trump has caused at home and abroad, while also criticizing Republicans in Congress for not standing up to him. (New York Times / Politico / Associated Press / CNN / The Guardian)

4/ Trump’s promised 15% “worldwide” tariffs went into effect at 10%. The White House said a 15% increase was still “being worked on,” but no order was issued, leaving companies and foreign governments to price and plan around a moving target. In Europe, officials warned the new across-the-board duty would stack on top of existing tariffs, pushing some EU exports above the ceilings in the EU-U.S. trade deal. Trump is using Section 122 authority to implement these tarrifs, which allows tariffs up to 15% for 150 days, after the Supreme Court struck down a large share of his earlier emergency-power tariffs. (Bloomberg / New York Times / NBC News / CNBC / Bloomberg)

5/ The Justice Department withheld some Epstein files tied to allegations that Trump sexually abused a minor and removed other documents where accusations against Epstein also mentioned Trump. More than 50 pages of notes and memos from FBI interviews with a woman who accused Trump of sexually abusing her as a minor appear to be catalogued, yet not publicly posted in the Justice Department’s database. The missing material appears in DOJ and FBI tracking records and in discovery logs from Ghislaine Maxwell’s case. Other Trump-mentioning records were either briefly pulled and later restored, or remain offline and unavailable. The Justice Department, meanwhile, said any unpublished material is “privileged,” duplicative, or tied to an ongoing federal investigation, while insisting “NOTHING has been deleted” and that some files were temporarily pulled for redactions related to victim or personally identifiable information. Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight committee, said the Justice Department “appears to have illegally withheld” FBI interviews after reviewing the unredacted DOJ logs, prompting Oversight Democrats to open a parallel investigation. The White House nevertheless said Trump has been “totally exonerated” and has “done more for Epstein’s victims than anyone before him.” (NPR / MS Now / CNBC / Bloomberg / Politico)

6/ The Pentagon privately warned Trump that a major military strike against Iran could turn into a prolonged campaign that would likely produce U.S. and allied casualties and drain air-defense interceptors. Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, raised the risks in internal meetings and at the National Security Council. Trump publicly played down the warning, saying Caine “would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won.” He also insisted it was “100% incorrect” that Caine was “against us going to War with Iran,” and added: “I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country.” The White House added that Caine’s job is to give Trump “unbiased information” and that “he is always the final decision maker.” Separately, the State Department ordered nonessential personnel and family members to leave the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon. (Wall Street Journal / Washington Post / ABC News / Axios / Associated Press)

poll/ 61% of Americans think Trump has “become erratic with age,” including 89% of Democrats, 30% of Republicans, and 64% of independents. Trump he returned to office in January 2025 at 78, making him the oldest president on inauguration day. (Reuters)

poll/ 57% of Trump’s critics say his immigration crackdown is the worst thing he’s done in his second term, 33% point to the economy (with 29% blaming tariffs), 22% cite corruption, constitutional violations, or politicizing the Justice Department, and 13% point to the handling of the Epstein files. Among Trump’s supporters, 79% say his immigration agenda is the best thing he’s done, 45% point to the economy (including 14% who cite tariffs), 15% cite tax cuts or his “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and 9% credit him for cutting federal spending and the workforce. (Washington Post)

poll/ 26% of independents approve of the job Trump is doing as president – the lowest level measured in either of his terms. Overall, 36% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing, with 63% disapproving. 32% said Trump had the “right priorities,” while 68% said he hasn’t focused on the country’s most important problems, and 61% said his policies were moving the country in the wrong direction. (CNN)

poll/ 10% of Americans say things are going well in the country, while 34% say things could be better, and 52% say things are going poorly and major, disruptive change is needed. 32% said prices and inflation were the top issue facing the country today, followed by jobs and the economy (16%), health care (12%), crime (9%), and immigration (8%). (Strength in Numbers)

The 2026 midterms are in 252 days; the 2028 presidential election is in 287 days.

✏️ Notables.

  1. A federal three-judge panel refused to block Utah’s court-ordered House congressional map, giving Democrats an opportunity to flip one of the four House seats. The court said “A federal court preliminary injunction is not appropriate because Utah’s official primary process is upon us” and risks voter confusion as the candidate filing period opens in about two weeks. (Politico / Associated Press)

  2. The Trump administration discussed requiring banks to collect customers’ citizenship status. The move would expand “know your customer” compliance beyond current anti-money-laundering rules by requiring banks to collect passports and Social Security numbers from new and existing customers to determine citizenship status. Officials said nothing’s been approved and the White House dismissed reporting as “baseless speculation.” There are no laws against banks opening accounts for U.S. noncitizens. (Wall Street Journal)

  3. The Justice Department sued New Jersey to block Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s executive order that limits ICE access to nonpublic areas of state property without a judicial warrant. The lawsuit argues the order violates the Constitution’s supremacy clause by “directly regulat[ing] and discriminat[ing] against” the federal government and creating an “intolerable obstacle” to immigration enforcement. Sherrill’s February order also barred ICE from using state property as a “staging area, processing location, or operations base,” and the state set up a portal for residents to upload videos of ICE encounters. (Associated Press / NBC News / Politico)

  4. A former ICE lawyer who trained deportation officers said the academy program is “deficient, defective and broken,” accusing the Department of Homeland Security of shortening courses and stripping out essential material as it scales up staffing for Trump’s mass deportation effort. (NBC News)

  5. Federal judges ordered the Trump administration at least 35 times since August to explain apparent violations of immigration court orders. Justice Department lawyers have blamed workload and coordination errors, describing judges’ deadlines as “unrealistic” and decisions as “crazy,” while judges have warned that “understaffing” no longer excuses “disobedience and radio silence.” (New York Times)

  6. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro dropped the effort to indict six Democratic lawmakers over a social media video urging military and intelligence personnel not to follow orders they believe were unlawful. The move follows a federal grand jury unanimously declining to charge them under 18 U.S.C. § 2387, a rarely used statute that carries up to 10 years in prison for urging insubordination or refusal of duty in the armed forces. (NBC News / CBS News)

  7. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – again – defended Trump’s order to expand domestic production of glyphosate-based herbicides and elemental phosphorus, despite Kennedy’s long record of calling glyphosate carcinogenic and pesticides “toxic by design.” MAHA activists said the endorsement betrayed the movement’s anti-“Big Chemical” premise, arguing supply-chain security didn’t justify scaling production and warning that the order’s liability protections would amount to “blanket immunity” for pesticide makers. (Politico / The Hill / New York Times / Associated Press)