• The presidential election is in 5 days.

  • 📈 Polling Vibes.

  • Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
    Harris +1.2 points (FiveThirtyEight)
    Harris +1.1 points (Nate Silver)
    Harris +1.5 points (The Economist)
    Trump +0.5 points (RealClearPolitics)
    Harris +1.6 points (Split Ticket)

  • 🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  • Trump wins 52 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
    Trump wins 53 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
    Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (The Economist)
    Trump wins 52 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
    Harris wins 52 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
    Trump wins 51 times out of 100. (270toWin)
    Trump wins 53 times out of 100. (The Hill)
    Trump wins 60 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  • Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  • 💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

  • 💡 How not to freak out about the election. “Do you have a problem now?” “Narrow your life down to this moment. Your life situation may be full of problems – most life situations are – but find out if you have any problem at this moment. Not tomorrow or in ten minutes, but now.”(Oliver Burkeman)

  • ⏳ When polls close in each state and how long it may take to count votes. “Vote counting isn’t expected to be nearly as slow as it was last time around, but there’s a chance we won’t know the outcome of the presidential race — and possibly even control of Congress — on election night.” (Washington Post)

1/ Trump vowed to “protect” women “whether the women like it or not” after he said his “people” told him it was “inappropriate.” He added: “I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not; I’m going to protect them.” The comments follow Trump remarks in recent months that he would “protect women” and make sure they wouldn’t be “thinking about abortion” despite appointing the three justices to the Supreme Court who formed the conservative majority that overturned the federal right to abortion. Kamala Harris, meanwhile, called Trump’s comments “offensive to everybody” and that they’re proof Trump “is not going to be fighting for women’s reproductive rights.” Women have outpaced men in early voting in states where results are reported by gender. (Washington Post / New York Times / NBC News / Axios / Associated Press / Politico)

  • They Want to Ensure That, This Time, White Women Vote for a Woman. “Donald Trump has won white women, the country’s largest voting bloc, for two elections running. White female Democrats are trying to stop that from happening again, but it may be an uphill fight.” (New York Times)

  • MAGA Bros Are Freaking Out Because So Many Women Are Voting. ““Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA and it’s over,” tweeted right wing gadfly Mike Cernovich.” (Daily Beast)

  • ‘Like it or not’: In one quote, Trump distills the 2024 gender gap. “The former president’s comment at a Wisconsin rally was a pithy encapsulation of the concerns that are spurring a lot of women’s votes.” (Washington Post)

2/ The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation fell to its lowest level since February 2021. Prices rose 2.1% in September compared to a year ago. The central bank’s goal is 2%. (ABC News / Bloomberg / Washington Post / CNBC / Axios)

  • The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy. “The high quality of recent economic growth should put a wind at the back of the White House’s next occupant.” (Wall Street Journal)

3/ North Korea launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile intended to send a message to “rivals” who have “escalated” regional tensions. Shortly after the U.S. and South Korea condemned the country for deploying troops near Ukraine to join Russia’s war effort, Kim Jong Un ordered the missile test, calling the launch “an appropriate military action” to show that North Korea would respond to enemies that “posed a threat to the security of our republic recently.” It was the first major weapons test since September. About 8,000 North Korean soldiers are now in Russia near Ukraine’s border. Russia has reportedly been training North Korean soldiers in artillery, drones, and “basic infantry operations, including trench clearing, indicating that they fully intend to use these forces in front line operations.” (Associated Press / Washington Post / New York Times / ABC News / Axios)

  • U.S. Turns to China to Stop North Korean Troops From Fighting for Russia. “American agencies have assessed that China dislikes the growing partnership between Russia and North Korea. The State Department has raised the troop issue with Chinese diplomats.” (New York Times)

✏️ Notables.

  1. After non-endorsement, 250,000 subscribers cancel the Washington Post. “Newsroom staffers press for answers on the loss of readers and trust after the owner and publisher decided to no longer endorse presidential candidates.” (Washington Post / Associated Press)

  2. The billionaire is the threat, not the solution. “Jeff Bezos is not the answer at The Washington Post. And billionaire funding is not the answer for journalism.” (404 Media)

  3. Jeff Bezos should donate the Washington Post to a charity. “His conflicts of interests are insurmountable. He can take a heroic path to strengthen journalism.” (Columbia Journalism Review)

  4. Workers say they were tricked and threatened as part of Elon Musk’s get-out-the-vote effort. “America PAC door knockers were flown to Michigan, driven in the back of a U-Haul, and told they’d have to pay hotel bills unless they met unrealistic quotas. One was surprised they were working to elect Donald Trump.” (Wired)

  5. Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and the billions of ways to influence an election. “The world’s richest men have their own rocket fleets, their own media and their own schemes to succeed with Donald J. Trump.” (New York Times)

  6. A second Trump term comes with unacceptable risks. “If The Economist had a vote, we would cast it for Kamala Harris” (The Economist)

  7. Trump is laying the groundwork to challenge an election he might lose. Pennsylvania is ground zero. “The former president is laying the groundwork to contest the results if he loses the race’s biggest battleground.” (Politico)

  8. Trump insists he has big lead over Harris, setting stage for 2024 doubts. “By conflating polls and early-voting data, Trump is painting a reality for his faithful where he’s got a clear lead and is on track for a resounding victory over Vice President Kamala Harris that only malfeasance can derail.” (Bloomberg)

  9. The democratic theory of winning with less. “This election will be decided not by another big popular vote but by the slenderest of margins in the Rust Belt battlegrounds.” (The Atlantic)

  10. Gen Z is shocked by Trump’s Access Hollywood video. We should be, too. “Let’s not forget Trump’s decades of documented sexual misconduct.” (Vox)