Today in one sentence: Trump declined to rule out a recession, but instead called the current economic situation a "period of transition" as he imposes tariffs and cuts government jobs; House Republicans released their spending bill to fund the government and avoid a shutdown on March 15; Trump accused Canada of “ripping us off for years" and said he may impose new, “reciprocal” tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber; the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February – short of the 170,000 forecast – as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%; Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will keep interest rates steady as it assesses the economic impact of Trump’s shifting trade policies; Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve using cryptocurrency seized by the government; Trump said he is “strongly considering” imposing new sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and peace deal are reached in Ukraine; Trump signed an executive order restricting student loan forgiveness for nonprofit workers linked to immigration aid, gender-affirming care, and other activities the Trump administration deems harmful to "national security and American values"; Republicans and the White House are pushing a tax credit plan that would divert billions in federal tax revenue to private school voucher programs; the Trump administration canceled $400 million in federal grants and contracts to Columbia University; federal immigration agents arrested a Palestinian activist and former Columbia University graduate student; and the Department of Homeland Security is using polygraph tests to find employees leaking immigration enforcement details.

1/ Trump declined to rule out a recession, but instead called the current economic situation a “period of transition” as he imposes tariffs and cuts government jobs. Asked directly about the risk of a downturn, Trump told Fox News, “I hate to predict things like that,” but admitted that “It takes a little time.” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick outright dismissed concerns, insisting, “There’s going to be no recession in America. No chance.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, warned of a “detox period” as the economy adjusts to less government spending. The stock market, meanwhile, reflected growing fears, with the S&P 500 falling 2.7% – its worst drop of the year – while investors reacted to Trump’s unpredictable trade policies. Inflation also concerns remain, as tariffs are expected to raise prices on foreign goods, while economic indicators – including declining consumer confidence, unemployment ticking up to 4.1% in February, and increased market volatility – suggest that uncertainty is growing. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects a 2.4% decline in U.S. economic growth for the first quarter of 2025 – the first contraction in three years and the largest drop since the pandemic. White House officials, however, downplayed the estimate, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett calling recent economic struggles “some blips in the data” while insisting that growth will “take off” later in the year. Nevertheless, Trump downplayed the economic data, saying: “What I have to do is build a strong country. You can’t really watch the stock market.” (Bloomberg / Axios / NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Bloomberg / Politico / Washington Post / New York Times / Associated Press / New York Times / Washington Post / CNBC / NBC News / Wall Street Journal / CNN)

  • Economic forecasts have deteriorated as Trump’s chaotic policies – tariffs, federal layoffs, and immigration crackdowns – have introduced uncertainty. Consumer confidence and business investment has slipped, while Wall Street economists have warned of a possible downturn. The administration’s tariff policies – suspended and reimposed within weeks – have rattled markets, pushing the S&P 500 down 6% and lowering growth expectations. Federal job cuts and mass deportations also risk reducing spending and worsening unemployment, with some experts warning of “death by a thousand paper cuts” to the economy. (New York Times / Washington Post / Reuters / Business Insider / Wall Street Journal / Axios)

2/ House Republicans released their spending bill to fund the government and avoid a shutdown on March 15. The bill to fund the government through September 30 boosts defense spending by $6 billion, while cutting non-defense programs by $13 billion – a move Democrats call a “power grab.” Speaker Mike Johnson, who is pushing the bill without Democratic support, said the bill allows the Trump administration to “continue finding extraordinary levels of savings.” Trump also urged Republicans to support it, warning, “We have to remain UNITED — NO DISSENT.” House Democrats, meanwhile, oppose the bill, arguing it hands control to “an unelected billionaire.” Further, the bill’s fate in the Senate remains uncertain, as it needs at least seven Democratic votes to pass. (New York Times / Bloomberg / Associated Press / Washington Post / Politico / Wall Street Journal / Wall Street Journal / Politico / NBC News / Axios / ABC News / CNN)

3/ Trump accused Canada of “ripping us off for years” and said he may impose new, “reciprocal” tariffs on Canadian dairy and lumber. A day after Trump delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month, Trump said Canada’s 250% tariff on dairy was unfair and vowed to match it. Canadian officials called Trump’s proposed tariffs “completely unjustified.” Meanwhile, Ontario announced a 25% tax on electricity exports to Minnesota, Michigan, and New York in response to Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods. Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned that if Trump escalates the trade war, Ontario may cut off electricity exports entirely. (NBC News / CNN / Bloomberg / Associated Press / New York Times / NBC News / Bloomberg)

  • Trump questioned the U.S.-Canada border treaty and suggested revisiting shared water agreements in February calls with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. U.S. officials later told Canada they were considering cutting intelligence-sharing and reviewing military cooperation. Trudeau, who initially dismissed Trump’s remarks about Canada as the “51st state,” now sees them as an effort to weaken Canada’s economy. (New York Times)

4/ The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February – short of the 170,000 forecast – as the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%. Federal government employment dropped by 10,000, reflecting early impacts of mass layoffs under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. The labor force, meanwhile, shrank by 385,000, and a rise in part-time employment for economic reasons pushed a broader measure of unemployment to 8% – its highest level since 2021. Wage growth remained steady at 0.3% for the month, but missed annual expectations. (Bloomberg / New York Times / Washington Post / NBC News / Wall Street Journal / CNBC)

5/ Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will keep interest rates steady as it assesses the economic impact of Trump’s shifting trade policies. Powell warned that prolonged tariff hikes could push prices higher, making the Fed cautious about cutting rates. Powell said the Fed will “wait for greater clarity” before adjusting rates, emphasizing that long-term inflation expectations must remain stable. “The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue.” (Bloomberg / CNBC / Wall Street Journal)

6/ Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve using cryptocurrency seized by the government. White House Crypto and AI Czar David Sacks confirmed the reserve will not include newly purchased bitcoin, but instead left open the possibility of using “budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies impose no incremental costs on American taxpayers.” The order also created a separate U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile to hold other confiscated cryptocurrencies, including ether, XRP, solana, and cardano. While the move symbolically recognizes bitcoin as a U.S. reserve asset. Bitcoin briefly dropped 5% on the announcement before recovering. (Reuters / CNBC)

7/ Trump said he is “strongly considering” imposing new sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and peace deal are reached in Ukraine. His announcement followed a Russian missile and drone barrage targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Trump, who has suspended U.S. military aid and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine, urged both sides to negotiate, warning that “Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine.” He also suggested that securing a settlement with Russia might be easier than dealing with Ukraine, adding that Putin would “be more generous than he has to be.” Meanwhile, Trump reportedly wants more than a minerals deal to restart U.S. aid to Ukraine, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s making concessions. (Bloomberg / New York Times / Wall Street Journal / Bloomberg / Washington Post / NBC News)

The midterm elections are in 603 days.

✏️ Notables.

  1. Trump signed an executive order restricting student loan forgiveness for nonprofit workers linked to immigration aid, gender-affirming care, and other activities the Trump administration deems harmful to “national security and American values.” The order directs the Education and Treasury Departments to redefine “public service” to exclude organizations engaged in activities such as aiding undocumented immigrants, supporting gender-affirming care, or violating state laws. (Bloomberg / NPR / New York Times / Washington Post)

  2. Republicans and the White House are pushing a tax credit plan that would divert billions in federal tax revenue to private school voucher programs. The plan would offer a dollar-for-dollar tax credit for donations to these programs, creating the largest federal incentive for charitable giving. The plan could cost the federal government up to $10 billion annually. (Washington Post)

  3. The Trump administration canceled $400 million in federal grants and contracts to Columbia University, citing the school’s alleged “continued inaction in the face of persistent harassment of Jewish students.” Education Secretary Linda McMahon said Columbia had “abandoned” its legal obligation to Jewish students and warned that further funding cuts could follow. (Axios / Washington Post / NBC News / New York Times / Bloomberg)

  4. Federal immigration agents arrested a Palestinian activist and former Columbia University graduate student at his university-owned apartment. Mahmoud Khalil, a legal permanent resident, played a role in last year’s pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia. The Department of Homeland Security claimed he “led activities aligned to Hamas” and cited Trump’s executive orders prohibiting antisemitism. Secretary of State Marco Rubio added that the administration would revoke visas and green cards of Hamas supporters. (The Guardian / Associated Press / Reuters / Axios / Bloomberg / New York Times)

  5. Israel cut off electricity to Gaza, affecting a desalination plant that supplies drinking water, as part of its effort to pressure Hamas in cease-fire negotiations. Hamas condemned the decision, calling it “collective punishment” and a “war crime.” The cutoff follows Israel’s repeated, earlier suspensions of humanitarian aid. (Politico / CNN / Bloomberg / Associated Press / New York Times)

  6. The Department of Homeland Security is using polygraph tests to find employees leaking immigration enforcement details. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said two “criminal leakers” were identified and face felony charges. Border czar Tom Homan blamed leaks for lower ICE arrests. DHS stated it “can, should, and will” use polygraphs but did not disclose how many employees have been tested. (CBS News / NBC News / The Hill)

  7. A federal judge ruled that Trump unlawfully fired Gwynne Wilcox from the National Labor Relations Board and ordered her reinstatement. U.S. District Judge Beryl Howell found that Trump lacked the authority to remove Wilcox, citing a 1935 law that protects board members from dismissal without cause. The Justice Department immediately appealed, arguing Trump should have the power to remove agency officials at will. (Associated Press / Washington Post / CNN)

  8. A federal judge issued a nationwide injunction blocking Trump’s attempt to freeze billions in federal funding without congressional approval. U.S. District Judge John McConnell ruled that the White House overstepped its authority by pausing grants and contracts through an Office of Management and Budget directive. The ruling prevents the Trump administration from reinstating the freeze under a different name. (New York Times / Wall Street Journal / ABC News)

  9. The Trump administration canceled 83% of USAID programs and plans to transfer the remaining ones to the State Department. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the cuts “overdue,” and claimed the 5,200 canceled contracts wasted “tens of billions” and harmed U.S. interests. (CNN / Associated Press)

  10. The Supreme Court agreed to hear a challenge to Colorado’s ban on “conversion therapy” for LGBTQ+ minors. Conversion therapy is a discredited practice that seeks to change an individual’s sexual orientation or gender identity through counseling or other interventions. The case could impact similar laws in over 20 states. (NBC News / Associated Press / Washington Post)

  11. The CDC – despite extensive research showing no connection – plans to investigate potential links between vaccines and autism. Trump and Health and Human Services Secretary Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have repeatedly promoted the disproven theory, which stems from a retracted 1998 study. The White House and the CDC have not provided details on the study’s scope or objectives. (Reuters / Washington Post)

  12. A second person died in the growing measles outbreak affecting Texas and New Mexico. The unvaccinated adult from New Mexico tested positive for measles posthumously, though the official cause of death is still under investigation. The outbreak has reached 222 reported cases, with the majority in Texas, particularly in low-vaccination communities. The CDC has sent experts to Texas, issued a travel advisory, and continues urging vaccinations to curb the outbreak. (NBC News / Wall Street Journal / Bloomberg)

  13. The Department of Health and Human Services offered a $25,000 buyout to most of its 80,000 employees. Employees must opt in by March 14. The move follows earlier cuts, including mass firings of probationary workers and deferred resignation offers to federal employees. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has publicly supported staff reductions, saying some employees “made really bad decisions” on health policies. (CBS News / Associated Press)

  14. The Army Corps of Engineers knew the water release ordered by Trump in January wouldn’t reach Southern California as he claimed. Col. Chad Caldwell, the Army Corps official overseeing the release, acknowledged in an internal memo that the plan lacked necessary coordination and couldn’t deliver water as promised. Despite warnings from state officials and farmers, the Corps proceeded to release billions of gallons from two reservoirs, later reducing the flow due to flooding concerns. Trump posted images of the release on social media, calling it a “victory,” even though the fires were already contained at the time of the release. (Washington Post)

Three years ago today: Day 415: "Preposterous."
Four years ago today: Day 50: "Help is on the way."
Eight years ago today: Day 50: Blow it up.